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The C price is over US $3/lb: Why market volatility won’t slow down in 2025 – Perfect Daily Grind

The C price is over US /lb: Why market volatility won’t slow down in 2025 – Perfect Daily Grind

Coffee prices have been steadily climbing this year. On 14 November 2024 – shortly after the EU voted to delay its deforestation regulation – the C price jumped to a 13-year high
A week later, as uncertainty about the EUDR postponement prevailed and the USDA lowered its estimates for Brazil’s 2025/26 production, arabica futures shot up to US $3.2/lb – the highest level in 27 years. Prices at this level have only been seen in 1977, 1997, and 2011 and are not expected to drop any time soon.
Many interconnected, complex factors are contributing to the highest C price we have seen in almost three decades. Supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam, a strong US dollar against the Brazilian real, and rising shipping costs are all pushing up market prices. The USDA will reportedly lower its estimates for the 2024/25 global surplus, meaning this sustained period of market volatility is likely to continue.
The implications of a high C price on coffee quality and availability are huge. Traders and roasters both need to adapt and strike a balance between costs and quality, while producers are likely to shift farming practices to capitalise on high prices.
To learn more, I spoke to Emmanuel Dias, Vice President of European Trading at Swiss Water Decaf, and Russ Prefontaine, president and co-owner of Fratello Coffee Roasters.
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Since the dissolution of the International Coffee Agreement in 1989, coffee prices have followed a pattern of low valleys and short peaks. This year alone, the C price has increased by a staggering 70% and reached its highest level since 1977, when a black frost devastated over 70% of Brazil’s coffee harvest.
Significant price spikes in 2024 are also related to unfavourable weather conditions. A severe drought in Brazil earlier this year worsened supply concerns, while periods of prolonged dryness and heavy rains in Vietnam impacted the country’s output. The two countries are the world’s two biggest producers of coffee, and therefore have a huge influence on the market.
But there are many other factors at play that are driving up the C price.
“Uncertainty about the EUDR has exacerbated market volatility,” says Emmanuel Dias, Vice President of European Trading at Swiss Water Decaf. Originally scheduled for rollout in December 2024, the EU parliament voted to delay the landmark deforestation regulation by one year to grant companies and operators more time to comply. Both the EU parliament and council need to agree to the postponement, and uncertainty about whether the delay will be approved has placed many traders and producers in a grey area, especially those which were well prepared for the new regulation.
Looking ahead, there are no signs that coffee prices will fall significantly in early 2025.
“Dwindling stocks in consuming countries, rising export levels, and lower production volumes are other compounding factors,” Emmanuel says. “According to the International Coffee Organisation, global exports were around 135 million 60kg bags this year – an increase of 11% on the previous year.”
Depleted stocks and a lower arabica output in Brazil will continue to leave a substantial gap in global coffee supply. Moreover, the country’s monthly exports reached a record high in October 2024.
Shipping costs and transit times are also playing a huge role in market volatility. Conflict and geopolitical tension in the Middle East have forced carriers to reroute, extending shipping times and adding on extra costs.
“Let’s say we need to export 120 million bags in a year to meet demand, so an average of 10 million bags per month,” Emmanuel explains. “An increase in transit time of four weeks or more means we would need to export an additional 10 million bags to maintain and replace stocks at destination. But despite increasing export volumes, stocks in consuming markets aren’t building.
“What’s more, importers aren’t incentivised to carry more stock because of high interest rates and the inverted switch,” he adds.
In the wake of a turbulent year ahead for the coffee industry, roasters will need to be even more prepared than ever before. Already balancing tight margins, many are grappling with rising business costs and inflation, forcing them to be more strategic with their buying practices and menu prices, including offering cost-effective blends.
“One of the most effective strategies we’ve adopted is enhancing transparency with our customers regarding the factors driving these cost increases,” says Russ Prefontaine, president and co-owner of Fratello Coffee Roasters. “By openly communicating about our cost structures – including the escalating prices of green coffee, shipping expenses, and operational costs – we help our clients understand that these changes are largely beyond our control.
“We’ve found that this level of transparency fosters trust and aligns us with our customers. While it’s possible to overwhelm clients with too much information, we’ve learned to balance detail with clarity to avoid confusion. This open dialogue demonstrates that any price adjustments are necessary to maintain a sustainable and profitable operation, rather than simply increasing margins.”
Periods of high market prices pose particular challenges for the specialty coffee industry. To take advantage of high prices that exceed the costs of production, producers are less incentivised to prioritise quality and opt for less intensive farming practices.
“There is a risk that producers will start growing less specialty-grade coffee to capitalise on a high C price,” Emmanuel says. “But the question is whether the premium paid for specialty coffee is high enough to cover production and processing costs. If yes, they will still grow specialty coffee. If not, producers will request higher premiums, changing the dynamic of coffee trade as they become price makers, not takers.”
On the other end of the supply chain, consumer behaviour may change as people respond and adapt to higher prices.
“I don’t think demand for specialty coffee will decline, however, we may observe a shift in consumer habits,” Russ tells me. “Similar to trends during the pandemic, more people might choose to consume coffee at home rather than in cafés. While the appreciation for specialty coffee remains strong, the context in which it’s enjoyed could change.”
For roasters, this could mean shifting their focus onto ecommerce and subscription offerings to better manage margins.
“I believe the market is shifting toward a new pricing structure that may become the norm. The higher pricing levels we’re seeing are crucial for achieving true sustainability for coffee farming communities, ensuring that producers receive fair compensation for their labour and resources,” Russ says. “The challenge for us as an industry is to adapt quickly enough to ensure the entire value chain remains profitable. This requires re-evaluating our pricing strategies, improving operational efficiencies, and continuing to educate consumers about the real value of coffee and the complexities of the global market.”
A complex interplay of market conditions is driving up the C price – and it’s unlikely to fall going into 2025. Roasters will need to be more strategic than ever, and increased transparency with customers is likely to work in their favour.
Next year is shaping up to be a turbulent time for the coffee industry with much uncertainty expected. But as record market prices trickle down to consumers, roasters can take the opportunity to explain why. In turn, consumers’ perceived value of coffee could increase – and they may be willing to pay more in the long term.
Enjoyed this? Then read our article on why market volatility means roasters need to be strategic with prices.
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Phosphorus is vital to overall health, but be wary of taking supplements. Here's why. – USA Today

Phosphorus is vital to overall health, but be wary of taking supplements. Here's why. – USA Today

When most of us think about getting enough vitamins and minerals, we usually think of the ones that get the most attention like vitamins A, C and D and minerals like magnesium, calcium, iron and zinc. Sometimes these nutrients get so much recognition that many people also start supplementing them by taking pills, powders and/or liquids. 
But one of the minerals we don’t hear about nearly as often is also one of the most important. Here’s why phosphorus is so vital to overall health and how you can increase your intake of it naturally or, when recommended by your doctor, in supplemental form.
Phosphorus is an essential mineral, which means it’s critical for maintaining certain bodily functions but your body can’t produce it naturally. Despite not being produced in the body, “phosphorus is a mineral that is incredibly abundant in the body,” says Dr. Uma Naidoo, director of nutritional and lifestyle psychiatry at Massachusetts General Hospital and the Harvard-trained nutritional psychiatrist behind “Calm Your Mind with Food.” In fact, research shows that phosphorus is the second most abundant mineral in the body after calcium.
The reason for this abundance is that the mineral is quite common in many of the foods we eat every day. “Phosphorus tends to be found in most protein-dense foods like beef, poultry, pork, seafood, eggs, dairy, nuts, seeds and legumes,” says Naidoo. Other foods that contain phosphorus include whole grains, bran cereals, pizza, chocolate, bananas, kiwis, prunes, potatoes, avocados and artichokes. 
Sometimes the mineral is also added to foods as an additive or preservative and will show up on the food’s Nutrition Facts Label when that’s the case. 
In short, “we can meet our daily phosphorus needs of 700 milligrams from a variety of food sources,” says Leslie Bonci, a registered sports dietitian and founder of Active Eating Advice. As examples, she notes that one cup of milk contains 226 milligrams of phosphorus, 16 ounces of yogurt has 245 milligrams, three ounces of salmon contain 214 milligrams, three ounces of chicken breast contain 182 milligrams and 1/2 cup of lentils is loaded with 178 milligrams of the mineral. 
No matter which food sources you’re getting the nutrient from, “phosphorus plays a key role in many health functions,” says Lisa Young, a registered dietitian nutritionist, author of “Finally Full, Finally Slim” and an adjunct professor of nutrition at New York University.
For one, “phosphorus keeps the blood pH within a normal range,” says Bonci. This is a measure of how acidic or alkaline something is, and maintaining a normal blood pH is important for overall health. “Phosphorus also plays a role in muscle and nerve function,” Bonci adds. It does this by aiding muscle contraction and by helping form DNA, RNA and cellular membranes throughout the body. 
In similar fashion, phosphorus also “works to form adenosine triphosphate (ATP), the key molecule that our cells use for energy,” says Young. 
Most importantly, she says, the mineral works with calcium to build and maintain strong bones and teeth. It does this by the two minerals forming hydroxyapatite, the main structural component of bone and tooth enamel.
Because phosphorus is such a common mineral, most people do not need to take it as a supplement. But there are exceptions.
“Supplementation tends to be recommended to those with a generally unhealthy diet, those who do not consume animal products or those who are nutrient-deficient,” says Naidoo. Sometimes people with certain medical conditions like diabetic ketoacidosis or those recovering from surgery or burns may also need supplementation. “And individuals with certain genetic disorders or (who are) taking medications that deplete phosphorus may also require supplements,” says Young.
Excessive amounts of phosphorus may negatively impact calcium levels in the body, “which can be detrimental to bones and the cardiovascular system,” says Naidoo. “And people with kidney disease sometimes need (to) watch the amount of phosphorus they consume,” adds Young.
Because of such factors, Naidoo says that “phosphorus supplementation should only be done under the supervision of a physician.”

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Analysis: The No Good, Very Bad Year for UnitedHealth – MedCity News

Analysis: The No Good, Very Bad Year for UnitedHealth – MedCity News

UnitedHealth Group has had a difficult year marked by a dramatic stock drop, leadership shake-up and mounting regulatory scrutiny. Experts point to its aggressive Medicare Advantage strategy and a rapidly evolving healthcare landscape as key drivers of its challenges.
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It goes without saying that this past year has been anything but easy for UnitedHealth Group.
As one of the biggest healthcare companies in the U.S., it has long been a reliable stock to invest in. But in the last few months, its stock has dropped nearly 50%, it has switched CEOs and seems to be on the back foot — a surprising development for one of the biggest names in healthcare. How did all this unfold and more importantly, can it dig out of it?

First, let’s begin with the cause for the stock to decline.
The first major drop came in April after UnitedHealth Group reported disappointing first quarter earnings. The healthcare giant also revised its adjusted earnings per share outlook for 2025 to between $26 and $26.50, compared to its previous forecast between $29.50 and $30. An analyst note from Leerink Partners called it an “uncharacteristic miss” for UnitedHealth Group.
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Then, UnitedHealth Group announced last month that CEO Andrew Witty was stepping down due to “personal reasons” and would be replaced immediately by Stephen J. Hemsley, who served as the company’s CEO from 2006 to 2017. The company also suspended its 2025 outlook “as care activity continued to accelerate while also broadening to more types of benefit offerings than seen in the first quarter, and the medical costs of many Medicare Advantage beneficiaries new to UnitedHealthcare remained higher than expected.” This caused the stock to plummet again.
To make matters worse, the Wall Street Journal reported this month that UnitedHealth Group is under criminal investigation by the Justice Department for possible Medicare fraud. The investigation is related to UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage business, though the exact nature of the allegations is unclear. The company said in a statement that it has not been notified by the Justice Department about this investigation and called the Journal’s reporting “deeply irresponsible.”
Another publication also took aim at the insurance giant and largest employer of physicians in the country. 
The Guardian reported in late May that UnitedHealth was secretly paying thousands of dollars in bonuses to nursing homes so that they didn’t transfer patients to hospitals which would lead to more expensive care. These patients were all part of UnitedHealth’s Medicare Advantage plans whose members are long term nursing home residents, and for whose care UnitedHealth receives taxpayer dollars.
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In addition, UnitedHealth Group was sued by its shareholders this month, who accused the company of misleading them after the December killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. The lawsuit alleged that UnitedHealth Group understated the impact of Thompson’s murder on the company. A spokesperson for the company said UnitedHealth Group “denies any allegations of wrongdoing and intends to defend the matter vigorously.”
So why is the company beset by so many issues?
During a May 13 conference call following the announcement of Witty’s departure as CEO, CFO John Rex said its challenges can be put into three categories:
“One, greater-than-expected impact in UnitedHealthcare from the health status of new members,” he said. “Two, further acceleration of utilization within Medicare Advantage. Third, indications of a broadening of this higher trend to other areas and we are prudently anticipating these trends may go even further.”
On the same conference call, Hemsley said he is “deeply disappointed in and apologize for the performance setbacks we have encountered from both external and internal challenges. Many of the issues standing in the way of achieving our goals, as well as our opportunities, are largely within our control.”
What’s notable about UnitedHealth Group’s challenges is that other public insurers, such as Elevance, Aetna or Centene, are not suffering the same fate, according to one industry expert. 
“Historically, they’ve been viewed as sort of the best managed health plan out there,” said Ari Gottlieb, principal of consulting group A2 Strategy Corp, in an interview. “And so you would have expected that if United is stumbling, everyone else is as well, but this seems to be an issue that’s mostly confined to United right now. We certainly haven’t seen any other health insurers come out and say, ‘We’re seeing the same thing.’ … Everybody else sort of said, ‘Things are sort of trending as we expected.’”
He added that part of UnitedHealth’s challenges can be explained by them being too aggressive in Medicare Advantage this year. The health benefits the company offered were “greater than the market and what reimbursement supported,” he said. In other words, the plan design was too generous, which prompted increased utilization while the associated benefit costs were not adequately covered by reimbursement rates. 
Another expert argued that the healthcare industry has evolved, and things that went unnoticed in the past are now catching up, such as claims denials.
“[Witty’s] strategy really was one out of the old playbook, which is the way you become successful is you increase the medical loss ratio, by which I mean you lower the value, meaning that you invest less in actual care delivery. He does that by a lot of prior authorization, a tremendous amount of claims denial,” said Dr. Robert Pearl, former CEO of the Permanente Medical Group, who is currently a professor at Stanford University School of Medicine and Stanford Graduate School of Business, as well as a healthcare author and podcaster.
“The playbook that worked in a different time period, in a different Congress, different economic mindset, that’s all changed,” he continued. “The people who are going to be successful are going to be the ones not only who can respond, but who can anticipate and move forward. And UnitedHealthcare didn’t do that.” 
While UnitedHealth Group is pointing to higher-than-expected utilization in Medicare Advantage as one of the key drivers of their struggles, there’s a broader issue at play, argued Dr. Adam Brown, an emergency physician and founder of healthcare advisory firm ABIG Health, as well as a professor of practice at the University of North Carolina.
The healthcare giant has its tentacles in insurance with UnitedHealthcare, provider services under Optum and pharmacy benefits with Optum Rx. And people are starting to question whether this vertical integration has exceeded its limits.
“I don’t think this is just a blip in the stock market,” Brown said. “I do believe it’s a bit of a reckoning where United, over the past several years, has been building an empire on Medicare Advantage and on vertical integration. And remember, Medicare Advantage is taxpayer dollars. … I think regulators, politicians — we see it even in a bipartisan manner — and of course patients are asking similar questions: Have we gone too far in vertical integration, and have we handed over too much of healthcare to one single entity?” 
What’s ahead for UnitedHealth Group?
While Brown doesn’t believe this is just a “blip” for UnitedHealth Group, Gottlieb seems to disagree. He thinks the company’s issues will resolve in about a year. He gave the example of CVS Health, which was reportedly exploring a breakup back in October.
“They managed to turn things around, at least on the insurance,” he said. “I think they’re still struggling on their Oak Street clinics and some of the other assets. So these things are solvable. It will take some time.”
Bringing back Hemsley will also likely provide some stability for UnitedHealth, he noted. To fix their financial issues, they’ll likely reduce benefits in their MA plans, starting with supplemental benefits, Gottlieb stated. 
He added that the DOJ investigation is probably of minimal concern to the company.
“You don’t normally see the federal government really going after large corporations and taking any significant action. To me, that’s most likely a lot of noise,” he said, noting that there may be some penalties they’ll have to pay, but nothing substantial.
Pearl agreed that UnitedHealth will likely come out of this.
“They are not going to fail. They have big reserves too, so they’re not going to go out of business,” he said. “They’re not going to run out of cash, but they are going to have to get their feet back on the ground and figure out what they’re going to do over the next 10 years.”
Brown argued that the company likely isn’t at risk of failing from a profitability standpoint. However, it could be at risk of some threats from a regulatory perspective due to the scrutiny from the DOJ, FTC, HHS and Congress. In addition, with the stock dropping, the public may be viewing the company differently.
“I think if all of those different verticals are speaking and controlling more, that may give us more of a signal of where things go with this company and other companies like it,” he said.
Photo: Tero Vesalainen, Getty Images
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